Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 1.575566 1.636841 1.700465 1.771702 1.849541 1.932359 2.027600
2025-12-07 1.473949 1.551694 1.634774 1.730793 1.839536 1.959902 2.104708
2025-12-14 1.413600 1.502999 1.600641 1.716319 1.851168 2.005452 2.198506
2025-12-21 1.361918 1.459283 1.567470 1.698224 1.854331 2.038039 2.276038
2025-12-28 1.336135 1.442568 1.562866 1.711221 1.892778 2.112947 2.409336
2026-01-04 1.318649 1.433826 1.566116 1.732458 1.941047 2.201813 2.567326
2026-01-11 1.289433 1.409574 1.549261 1.727558 1.955476 2.247514 2.670978
2026-01-18 1.266612 1.391668 1.538778 1.729298 1.977504 2.303557 2.793385
2026-01-25 1.231429 1.357452 1.506827 1.702138 1.959826 2.304119 2.834329
2026-02-01 1.207758 1.336288 1.489949 1.693073 1.965029 2.335719 2.923968
2026-02-08 1.184567 1.314863 1.471810 1.681298 1.965487 2.359986 3.003891
2026-02-15 1.163083 1.294819 1.454600 1.669787 1.965324 2.382757 3.083085
2026-02-22 1.149901 1.285127 1.450649 1.676259 1.991335 2.447193 3.242617
2026-03-01 1.120877 1.254788 1.419351 1.644828 1.962049 2.425982 3.250256
2026-03-08 1.102985 1.237971 1.404878 1.635449 1.963640 2.451965 3.345623
2026-03-15 1.084226 1.219553 1.387744 1.621699 1.958023 2.465954 3.420168
2026-03-22 1.077906 1.216709 1.390676 1.635423 1.993111 2.547112 3.636756
2026-03-29 1.074758 1.217743 1.398580 1.656165 2.039568 2.650689 3.920256
2026-04-05 1.062305 1.206414 1.389691 1.652764 2.048870 2.691991 4.077918
2026-04-12 1.052668 1.198478 1.385048 1.655123 2.067015 2.749892 4.286294
2026-04-19 1.033398 1.177578 1.362459 1.630891 2.042154 2.729167 4.299832
2026-04-26 1.020993 1.165428 1.351404 1.623001 2.042853 2.754761 4.435832
2026-05-03 1.008126 1.152415 1.338861 1.612512 2.038825 2.771213 4.551838